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Twin Falls Real Estate benefits from housing bubble
Twin Falls Real Estate could benefit from a bursting of the housing bubble

By The Times-News - 8 December, 2005

TWIN FALLS -- Theories indicate this could go one of two ways, said Dave McAlindin.

Real Estate bubbles start to burst in places like California, sending housing markets across the country swooning.

"Which I don't think will happen," said McAlindin, director of the city of Twin Falls' economic development department.

Or, as the West Coast market goes bad, homeowners there will sell en masse and move to places like the Magic Valley.

That seems more likely, he said.

The Associated Press on Wednesday reported that a sustained decline will hit the U.S. real estate market next year, costing the nation as many as 800,000 jobs, according to a new economic report. The slowdown is likely to last several years, with as many as 500,000 construction jobs and 300,000 financial sector positions lost, the quarterly Anderson Forecast predicted.

"We expect real estate to start slowing the economy this quarter or the next," said Edward Leamer, director of the study done at the University of California, Los Angeles.

"Some jobs in manufacturing might well disappear as a result of weakness in real estate, but this may be offset by jobs brought home or not lost to foreign competition," he wrote.

But, Twin Falls' real estate economy is poised to go the other way, said McAlindin. As an example of things to come, he said, the city will soon announce the relocating "of two small companies from California."

A "major" enticement was more affordable real estate for its employees, he said.

Economist Ryan Ratcliff told The Associated Press that California's real estate market will see a slowdown in spending along with job losses in construction and related sectors. He expects California home prices to plateau while sales and new construction see moderate decreases during two years of weak growth.

The real esate market in Twin Falls remains strong. The city has been issuing record numbers of building permits for single-family homes all year, except during June and July. The high point was August at 91 permits, according to city figures.

The local market might not go unaffected by national problems, however. Hurricanes Rita and Katrina could push up the costs of materials, such as plywood, said regional economist Greg Rogers of Idaho Commerce and Labor. As whole cities like New Orleans are being rebuilt, new homes might start getting priced beyond some consumers' ranges as contractors pass on the higher costs of materials, he said.

When demand goes up and supplies don't keep up, the first to suffer will be "regular consumers," he said.

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