By The Times-News - 8 December, 2005
TWIN FALLS -- Theories indicate this could go one of two ways, said Dave
McAlindin.
Housing bubbles start to burst in places like California, sending housing
markets across the country swooning.
"Which I don't think will happen," said McAlindin, director
of the city of Twin Falls' economic development department.
Or, as the West Coast market goes bad, homeowners there will sell en
masse and move to places like the Magic Valley.
That seems more likely, he said.
The Associated Press on Wednesday reported that a sustained decline will
hit the U.S. housing market next year, costing the nation as many as 800,000
jobs, according to a new economic report. The slowdown is likely to last
several years, with as many as 500,000 construction jobs and 300,000 financial
sector positions lost, the quarterly Anderson Forecast predicted.
"We expect housing to start slowing the economy this quarter or
the next," said Edward Leamer, director of the study done at the University
of California, Los Angeles.
"Some jobs in manufacturing might well disappear as a result of
weakness in housing, but this may be offset by jobs brought home or not
lost to foreign competition," he wrote.
But, Twin Falls' economy is poised to go the other way,
said McAlindin. As an example of things to come, he said, the city
will soon announce the relocating "of two small companies from California."
A "major" enticement was more affordable housing for its employees,
he said.
Economist Ryan Ratcliff told The Associated Press that California's housing
market will see a slowdown in spending along with job losses in construction
and related sectors. He expects California home prices to plateau while
sales and new construction see moderate decreases during two years of weak
growth.
The housing market in Twin Falls remains strong. The
city has been issuing record numbers of building permits for single-family
homes all year, except during June and July. The high point was August
at 91 permits, according to city figures.
The local market might not go unaffected by national problems, however.
Hurricanes Rita and Katrina could push up the costs of materials, such
as plywood, said regional economist Greg Rogers of Idaho Commerce and Labor.
As whole cities like New Orleans are being rebuilt, new homes might start
getting priced beyond some consumers' ranges as contractors pass on the
higher costs of materials, he said.